Kazakhstan: the Nuclear Energy Debate and the Road to a Referendum

The idea of building a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kazakhstan has been under discussion for several years and remains one of the most pressing issues in the country. The active discussion surrounding the construction of a nuclear power plant began during the reign of Nursultan Nazarbayev, when the press periodically reported on potential locations for the project, such as Lake Balkhash, the territory near the city of Aktau on the Caspian Sea, and even the former Semipalatinsk nuclear testing site. However, these projects were never implemented, and the discussions remained limited to theoretical plans.

With Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's rise to power, the conversation about nuclear energy has gained momentum. In 2019, President Tokayev stated that the construction of an NPP would be considered only if deemed necessary, and even then, the decision would be made via a referendum. Several years later, in the autumn of 2023, Tokayev once again underscored the importance of nuclear energy for Kazakhstan's future and instructed the government to initiate a comprehensive discussion of the project, with the intention of bringing it to a nationwide vote. The idea of holding a referendum not only prompted more active discourse within society but also clearly demonstrated that this is not merely a political decision, but one that touches on the vital interests of every citizen of Kazakhstan.

The referendum, scheduled for 6 October 2024, has become a symbol of growing openness and transparency in the country's governance. President Tokayev has shown an understanding of the significance of involving the populace in discussions of such serious issues as the construction of a nuclear power plant. Historical factors play an important role in this, as Kazakhstan still remembers the consequences of the numerous nuclear tests conducted at the Semipalatinsk testing site. Many citizens fear that the construction of a new nuclear power plant could result in even more unpredictable environmental and social consequences.

The referendum aims to answer the central question: are the people of Kazakhstan ready to accept nuclear energy as the basis for the country's future energy independence? This discussion is taking place against the backdrop of global challenges such as climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The construction of a nuclear power plant is seen as one possible step in this direction. Moreover, the decision to hold a referendum reflects the authorities' desire to make the process as democratic as possible, giving citizens the opportunity to express their opinions and have a say in the matter.

Supporters of the nuclear power plant view its construction as a powerful tool for strengthening Kazakhstan's energy independence. The country is the world's leading producer of uranium, and utilising this resource for domestic energy generation could significantly reduce dependence on electricity imports. Currently, Kazakhstan is forced to purchase up to 20% of its energy from Russia, which undermines its energy sovereignty.

Businessman Chingiz Serikov, who has worked in the energy sector for over 20 years, emphasises that the construction of a nuclear power plant is an effective solution to the problem of electricity shortages, which the country has faced in recent years. The modernisation of old thermal and hydroelectric power plants, built in the mid-20th century, would require significant costs, and the new capacities may still be insufficient to meet the growing demands of the economy. In contrast, nuclear power promises a stable and reliable energy supply.

Additionally, supporters argue that nuclear power offers environmental benefits. Nuclear power plants emit virtually no greenhouse gases, which makes them an attractive option in the fight against climate change. For Kazakhstan, a country heavily dependent on hydrocarbon production, the development of nuclear power could mark a step towards a greener future, allowing it to assume a new position on the international stage in the field of environmentally friendly energy production.

However, many Kazakhs are opposed to the construction of a nuclear power plant. Economist Aidar Alibayev believes that Kazakhstan already has sufficient energy capacity, which can be modernised at a lower cost than building a new nuclear power plant. The investment required for a nuclear power plant is estimated to range between $8 billion and $12 billion, a significant financial risk for a country that does not yet have a highly developed economy. Moreover, the maintenance of a nuclear power plant would involve additional costs for equipment replacement and waste management, which would further increase the overall expense of the project.

Environmental risks also play a large role in the discussions. Kazakhstan has already experienced the devastating consequences of nuclear testing at the Semipalatinsk testing site. Between 1949 and 1989, over 450 nuclear explosions were conducted at the site, resulting in large-scale radioactive contamination. Thousands of people living near the test site were exposed to radiation, leading to high rates of cancer, genetic mutations, and suffering that has spanned several generations. Although nuclear testing has ceased, the consequences continue to affect the region. For many Kazakhs, the memory of the Semipalatinsk tragedy serves as a stark reminder of the destructive potential of nuclear technology.

In the event of an accident at the nuclear power plant, the consequences would be catastrophic not just for the immediate region but for the entire country. Environmentalists warn that constructing a nuclear power plant near Lake Balkhash could pose a deadly threat to its unique ecosystem and the surrounding areas.

Another critical consideration is political dependence. If the construction of the nuclear power plant involves foreign companies, such as Russia’s Rosatom or Chinese corporations, Kazakhstan could become more dependent on these countries. Asset Nauryzbayev, the former head of KEGOC, notes that building a nuclear power plant with foreign partners could weaken Kazakhstan's sovereignty, especially given the current geopolitical instability.

All of these factors would significantly impact Kazakhstan's business environment. On the one hand, the nuclear power project would likely lead to infrastructure development, create new jobs, and attract foreign investment. However, it could also face issues such as corruption and a lack of transparency in the awarding of contracts, potentially delaying its implementation and increasing its overall cost. Furthermore, businesses focused on renewable energy might suffer if state resources are channelled into nuclear energy. Kazakhstan has already made some progress in developing wind and solar energy, and shifting focus to nuclear energy could slow the growth of these alternative energy sources.

In addition to these challenges, the construction of the nuclear power plant may have broader implications for Kazakhstan's economic landscape. While it may spur infrastructure development and foreign investment, there are concerns that it could divert significant resources from other energy sectors, particularly renewables. Furthermore, the high financial risk associated with nuclear power could strain public finances, potentially limiting investment in other critical sectors of the economy. The long-term management of nuclear waste and the costs of decommissioning the plant must also be considered, as they could impose significant economic burdens on future generations. As such, the decision on whether to proceed with this project will not only shape Kazakhstan's energy future but could have wide-ranging effects on the country's economic and business environment for decades to come.