Afghanistan: Changing Perceptions of the Taliban in International Policy

In December last year, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry announced its decision to remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently justified this decision, emphasising “the importance of developing trade and economic cooperation with modern Afghanistan and the understanding that this regime is a long-term factor.”

In August 2023, Astana hosted the Kazakh-Afghan Business Forum, and the Taliban was also invited to the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. This ‘awareness of reality,’ as described by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, reflects a broader regional shift in approach towards Afghanistan.

The geopolitical and economic landscape in Asia has been undergoing significant changes, prompting countries to maintain relations with Afghanistan for various reasons. Strong ties with the Taliban leverage Afghanistan’s strategic geographic position for connectivity, crucial for transit and access to its mineral resources and raw materials, which are highly sought after by developed countries.

In late April, a Kazakh delegation visited Kabul, where they attended a Kazakh-Afghan business forum and showcased Kazakh products. Discussions extended beyond trade to logistics. An unpublicised trilateral meeting between the governments of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan took place in Kabul, leading to the announcement of a new logistics route through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan expressed its readiness to supply materials for railway infrastructure, such as sleepers and fasteners.

Rail traffic between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan has increased by approximately 15% over the last three years since the Taliban came to power, positioning Kazakhstan as the primary supplier of wheat, grain, and oil to Afghanistan. Afghanistan represents a growing market for Kazakh exports. Talks also included the Trans-Afghan Railway, with potential extensions to Turkmenistan and on to Herat, Kandahar, and Spin Boldak, a town near the Pakistan border. These infrastructure projects aim to double Kazakhstan’s trade and provide significant economic opportunities for Afghanistan, potentially opening up markets in South Asia and East Africa that have been difficult to access.

For Afghanistan, strengthening ties with neighbouring countries is essential, particularly in addressing food security and economic stability. The nation’s food security remains fragile, and new trade routes could alleviate some of these challenges. Access to vital oil supplies and revenue from transit fees could significantly boost Afghanistan’s economy, potentially generating billions in revenue.

Despite ideological differences, Central Asian-Afghan relations are strictly focused on business cooperation. Cultural exchanges have not been prioritised; Central Asian countries have avoided establishing cultural centres in Afghanistan or allowing the Taliban to create similar centres within their borders. This mutual non-interference is why public criticism is minimal, with the Taliban refraining from commentary and most Central Asian governments, except Tajikistan, remaining silent on Afghan domestic affairs.

The Kosh Tepa Canal, currently under construction by Afghanistan, could pose future issues for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan due to its potential impact on the Amu Darya’s water flow. A resulting shortage in southern Uzbekistan and eastern Turkmenistan could strain relationships, although this remains a prospective issue.

While Tajikistan is gradually adjusting its position, economic opportunities remain the primary motivation for Central Asian nations. Trade with Afghanistan is viewed as a significant benefit. The Kyrgyzstan Prosecutor General’s Office recently released a list of terrorist and extremist organisations, omitting the Taliban, signalling a shift in perception. The Afghan Foreign Ministry responded positively, expressing “high appreciation” for Kyrgyzstan’s decision to exclude the Taliban from its list of banned groups. Kazakhstan’s earlier decision to remove the Taliban from such lists highlights a broader regional trend.

“As part of efforts to develop economic cooperation with Afghanistan, Kazakhstan has excluded the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations. We believe that this step, along with our efforts to create the UN Regional Centre for SDGs for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty, will contribute to the further integration of this country into the world. We hope it will also create new opportunities for humanitarian support to the Afghan people,” said President Tokayev.

In Russia, the process of removing the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations, where it has been since 2003, is still ongoing. On 4th October 2024, during the 55th meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services of CIS Member States (SORB), the Director of the Russian FSB, Alexander Bortnikov, announced efforts to foster cooperation between security services. This is seen as a mutual interest in ensuring regional security and combating international terrorism, drug trafficking, and arms smuggling.

The sixth meeting of the Moscow Format of Consultations on Afghanistan, held on the same day, included representatives from Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Amir Mottaki, the acting head of the Taliban government (unrecognised by any UN member state), attended. “We support the active commitment of the Afghan authorities to curbing the terrorist threat,” Lavrov stated, referencing the need to counter ISIS, which remains a recognised terrorist organisation. The Afghan Foreign Minister highlighted the importance of combating drug trafficking. A joint statement called for enhanced bilateral and multilateral counter-terrorism cooperation.

Senior researcher Mohammad Omar Nessar of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences noted that while regional security and counter-terrorism remain priorities for Russia and Central Asian nations, economic engagement with the Taliban is also essential. Kazakhstan’s and other countries’ decisions to remove the Taliban from terrorist lists align with efforts to boost regional trade and economic integration. For Kazakhstan, partnering with Afghanistan as a transit hub and resource provider offers significant benefits for expanding trade routes to South Asia and beyond. These new logistics routes and railways are expected to enhance trade and facilitate resource flow, benefiting both Kazakhstan and its Central Asian neighbours. Meanwhile, Afghanistan could secure vital imports and earn substantial transit revenue. This pragmatic approach prioritises economic gains over ideological differences, recognising Afghanistan’s strategic value while navigating complex regional dynamics.